rate-cycle

## Defaults | Parameter | Default Value | Rationale | |-----------|---------------|-----------| | lookback_quarters | 8 | Captures full rate cycle from hiking to cutting | | key_indicators | fed_funds, 2s10s_spread, dot_plot, inflation_breakevens | Core rate cycle indicators | ## Preflight Run canonical pre-flight per `contracts/preflight.md`. Propagate X-Agentii-Trace per `contracts/x-agentii-trace-header.md`. ## Data Source Priority 1. Knowledge entries (L1 rate cycle frameworks) -> 2. search_by_analogue(market_regime: rate-shock) -> 3. Real-time data ## Methodology ### Retrieval Scope structured_only ### Retrieval Strategy Query knowledge entries for rate cycle frameworks; query search_by_analogue for historical rate cycles; supplement with real-time data. ### Temporal Scope See frontmatter temporal_scope block. ### Tool Allowlist See frontmatter allowed_tools. ### Protocol 1. Rate Cycle Phase — classify hiking/plateau/cutting/emergency 2. Yield Curve Analysis — 2s10s spread, 3m10y, breakeven inflation 3. Framework Application — Taylor Rule, duration management 4. Analogue Retrieval — past rate cycles matching current phase ## Output File `{ticker}/{YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM}_rate-cycle_{affix}.md` ## Output Structure 1. **Executive Summary** — key findings in 2-3 sentences 2. **Core Analysis** — applied frameworks with specific evidence 3. **Quantitative Indicators** — key metrics and benchmarks 4. **Historical Analogues** — matched cases with /v/cases/ citations 5. ...