experiment

# Experiment > PREREQUISITE: Read `../_mureo-shared/SKILL.md` for auth, security rules, output format, and **Tool Selection** (Read/Write on Code, `mureo_strategy_*` / `mureo_state_*` MCP on Desktop / Cowork). Turn an ad-hoc change into a **designed experiment**. Most "we tried X and CPA moved" claims are noise — one variable was never isolated, the window was never fixed, and the decision was made by peeking. This skill enforces the discipline: a falsifiable hypothesis, exactly **one** variable, a success metric tied to a Goal, a pre-committed duration and sample floor, no peeking, and a per-variant verdict where **inconclusive is a valid outcome**. Read `../_mureo-learning/SKILL.md` first — its **Observation Windows** and **Minimum Sample Sizes** tables set the duration and sample floor this skill commits to, and its evidence lifecycle is the rulebook for the no-peeking rule below. ## Prerequisites - STRATEGY.md and STATE.json must exist (run the `onboard` skill first) ## Steps **Before you start**: Run the **Diagnostic preamble** from ../_mureo-shared/SKILL.md — load learning insights (mureo_learning_insights_get) and consult advisors (mureo_consult_advisor) before drawing conclusions. 1. **Hypothesis intake — force a falsifiable statement**. Take the hypothesis from the operator, from a `/creative-refresh` finding, or from a VALIDATED learning insight, and rewrite it into a single testable sentence with three explicit parts: **variable** (the ONE thing that differs...