scenario-war-room

# Scenario War Room Model cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests — compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next. ## Keywords scenario planning, war room, what-if analysis, risk modeling, cascading effects, compound risk, adversity planning, contingency planning, stress test, crisis planning, multi-variable scenario, pre-mortem ## Quick Start ```bash python scripts/scenario_modeler.py # Interactive scenario builder with cascade modeling ``` Or describe the scenario: ``` /war-room "What if we lose our top customer AND miss the Q3 fundraise?" /war-room "What if 3 engineers quit AND we need to ship by Q3?" /war-room "What if our market shrinks 30% AND a competitor raises $50M?" ``` ## What This Is Not - **Not** a single-assumption stress test (that's `/em:stress-test`) - **Not** financial modeling only — every function gets modeled - **Not** worst-case-only — models 3 severity levels - **Not** paralysis by analysis — outputs concrete hedges and triggers ## Framework: 6-Step Cascade Model ### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (max 3) State each variable with: - **What changes** — specific, quantified if possible - **Probability** — your best estimate - **Timeline** — when it hits ``` Variable A: Top customer (28% ARR) gives 60-day termination notice Probability: 15% | Timeline: Within 90 days Variable B: Series A fundraise delayed 6 months beyond target close Probability: 25% | Timeline: Q3 ...