scenario-war-roomlisted

# Scenario War Room **Tier:** POWERFUL **Category:** C-Level Advisory **Tags:** scenario planning, war room, risk modeling, cascade effects, contingency planning, pre-mortem, crisis simulation ## Overview The Scenario War Room models cascading what-if scenarios across all business functions. Not single-assumption stress tests -- compound adversity that shows how one problem creates the next, and where the cascade can be interrupted. Every scenario produces concrete hedges with costs, owners, and deadlines. --- ## When to Use - A major risk has probability above 15% and impact above 20% of ARR - Two or more threats could plausibly co-occur - A strategic decision has significant downside if wrong - Board or investors are asking "what's the worst case?" - Pre-mortem before a major commitment (fundraise, acquisition, market entry) - Quarterly risk review for leadership team ## When NOT to Use - Single-variable financial sensitivity analysis (use CFO Advisor stress testing) - Routine project risk assessment (use project management risk frameworks) - Technical failure mode analysis (use engineering incident planning) --- ## The 6-Step Cascade Model ### Step 1: Define Scenario Variables (Maximum 3) More than 3 variables creates analysis paralysis, not insight. Choose the 3 that actually keep leadership awake at night. For each variable, specify: | Field | Description | Example | |-------|-----------|---------| | **What changes** | Specific, quantified | "Top customer (