macro-warninglisted

# Macro Warning — Daily Pullback / Top-Risk Radar ## Goal Answer 3 questions every market session: 1. **Is the market priced for perfection?** (valuation extreme) 2. **Are we euphoric or panicked?** (sentiment / volatility extreme) 3. **What sector should I lean into / out of?** (rotation tilt) Output is a single regime tag (🟢 GREEN / 🟡 YELLOW / 🔴 RED) plus specific position-sizing advice. ## When to invoke - **Daily batch (recommended)**: 5pm ET (post-close) or 8am ET (pre-open) via `/schedule` - **Manual**: User asks "macro check / regime read / 该不该入场" - **Pre-event**: 24-48h before Fed / CPI / NFP / major earnings stack - **After +/-2% SPX day**: regime may have shifted ## The Indicator Stack (8 layers, weighted) ### Layer 1 — Valuation extremes (highest weight) | Indicator | Source | Threshold | Action | |---|---|---|---| | **NDX Forward P/E** | `gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/6778` or `macromicro.me/series/23955` or yfmcp QQQ.info forwardPE | **>38 = RED** (only 3 times in 20 yr: 2000, 2020, 2025) · 33-38 = YELLOW · <30 = GREEN | RED → trim AI capex names 25%, raise cash to 30% | | **SPX Forward P/E** | `wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields` | >22 = YELLOW · >25 = RED | RED → defensive rotation | | **Shiller CAPE** | `multpl.com/shiller-pe` | >35 = YELLOW · >40 = RED | Long-term sell signal | | **Buffett Indicator** (Mcap/GDP) | `currentmarketvaluation.com` | >180% = YELLOW · >200% = RED | Confirms top regime | **Why NDX 38 matters**: historical record hig