ultra-thinklisted

# Turn one consequential uncertainty into an evidence-backed decision Thinking sharpens one consequential decision; it does not map a research frontier or perform the implementation that follows. Persist only decisions that are hard to reverse, look surprising without context, and arose from a real trade-off. All three criteria must hold. ## Before you start 1. Resolve at most one active `change_id`, read `.ultra/tasks.json`, and if the decision is task-scoped read the matching current task's `context_file` and `## Resume Note`. 2. Read `CONTEXT.md`, relevant `.ultra/decisions/`, the active Change and its evidence. 3. State the one decision and the assumptions capable of changing its answer. ## Definition of done - Claims are labelled Fact, Inference or Speculation and cite their evidence. - The leading answer survived all four adversarial checks below. - The conclusion includes Confidence %, Key Assumptions and What would change my mind. - A qualifying durable decision is written once; a local reversible judgment is not. ## Run the adversarial protocol 1. **Steel Man**: build the strongest case for the option you expect to reject. 2. **Pre-Mortem**: assume the choice failed six months later and name the three most plausible causes. 3. **Sensitivity**: identify the assumption whose failure would reverse the answer. 4. **Second-Order**: describe the new constraints or failure modes created six to twelve months later. Give the owner one recommendation with the