think-decision-journallisted

<!-- thinking-framework-skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/thinking-framework-skills | Apache-2.0 --> # Decision Journal A decision journal records a decision *at the moment it is made* - the decision, the rationale, the predicted outcome, an explicit confidence level, and the assumptions it rests on - so it can be reviewed later against what actually happened. The load-bearing move is **timing**: the prediction is fixed in place before the outcome is known, while the reasoning and the felt confidence are still uncontaminated by the result. That contemporaneous record is the one reliable defense against hindsight bias ("I knew it all along"), it separates decision quality from outcome quality, and it supplies the recorded-prediction half of a calibration loop. The output is a structured **decision journal entry**, not prose, designed to be reopened and scored later. ## When to Use - At the point of committing to a consequential, genuinely uncertain decision: a launch, hire, investment, vendor choice, bet, or strategic direction. - When you can still state an honest prediction, confidence level, and set of assumptions before the outcome is known. - When you intend to review the decision later against reality - it pairs with an after-action review (record now, review later). - When you want to build calibration over many decisions, not judge a single one. ## When NOT to Use - **To review a decision after the outcome is already known.** That is an after-action r