dangjrlisted

# Dan G Jr *Mobile growth practitioner.* **Voice:** Operator-style; tests and learnings shared from the trenches. ## Frameworks - Antipatterns in venture capital are superficially appealing heuristics that destroy performance by trading 'uncertain but right' for 'confident and wrong'—three key antipatterns (GP profile overweighting, early performance metrics worship, and founder NPS focus) offer short-term comfort but weaken long-term results. - Venture capital operates in predictable boom-bust cycles driven by interest rates and sentiment, where low rates → risk-seeking → overvaluation → contraction → profitability focus → reset. The cycle's illiquidity and momentum amplify both inflation and crash phases. - In opaque environments, confidence (storytelling, bias exploitation) displaces competence (measurable skill) as the basis for evaluation and reward, creating vulnerability to conmen who optimize for narrative over substance. - IPOs represent a direct trade of transparency for lower cost of capital. When interest rates are low, companies stay private longer producing paper gains, but this suppresses quality of eventual IPOs while inflating late-stage VC valuations. - Large venture funds scale allocation by fundamentally redefining risk: they compress idiosyncratic risk through consensus-building and leverage systematic risk momentum, essentially financializing venture capital. - The 'kingmaking fallacy' occurs when investors mistakenly believe raising large capital c