assumption-bounty

# Assumption Bounty Every plan is a stack of beliefs wearing a costume of facts. Most die from an assumption nobody wrote down — because unwritten assumptions can't be tested, assigned, or noticed when they quietly become false. The bounty hunt pays by the find: every hidden belief extracted, priced, and ranked by (cost if wrong) ÷ (cost to test). ## Required Inputs - **The document** — plan, model, PRD, forecast, strategy. Spreadsheet-backed documents: include the key hardcoded numbers; each one is an assumption in a trench coat. - Optional: which assumptions the team already knows about — the bounty only pays for *hidden* ones, and knowing the acknowledged list sharpens the hunt. ## Where Assumptions Hide - **In verbs**: "users will migrate" (will they?), "the team can absorb" (can it?) - **In adjectives**: "conservative estimate", "simple integration", "standard terms" - **In silence**: what the document never mentions — pricing pages that assume no competitor response, hiring plans that assume no attrition - **In hardcoded numbers**: every constant in the model (conversion 3%, CAC $400) is a belief with a confidence interval nobody stated - **In the past tense**: "as we saw in the pilot" — assuming the pilot generalises - **In org charts**: "marketing will drive awareness" assumes a team's priorities that were never negotiated ## Output Format 1. **The ledger** — table, ranked by danger score: assumption (quoted or reconstructed) | where it hides | cost if wrong (o...