activation-designlisted

# activation-design ## When to use - The activation event is *"signed up"* or *"logged in"* and the funnel looks healthy while retention sinks — the event does not correlate with paid or D30, so the metric is a vanity surface. - A new segment is being routed against an activation event built for a previous segment — the aha moment differs by segment and the metric needs to be re-keyed. - A product loop redesign needs activation to complete the loop's first cycle (handover from `retention-loops`) — the activation event must match the binding loop's first reward, not an arbitrary product step. Do NOT use to design the day-0-to-day-30 milestone path (route to `onboarding-design`), the long-running retention loops themselves (route to `retention-loops`), or the full visitor-to-paid funnel diagnosis (route to `funnel-analysis`). ## Cognition cluster - **Mental model 9 — Hypothesis-driven thinking.** *"Event E is the activation moment because users who reach E retain at \<rate\> vs \<base\>"* is a falsifiable claim with evidence. *"E feels important"* is not. Pick the event that survives the hypothesis test. See [`docs/contracts/mental-models.md`](../../../docs/contracts/mental-models.md) § 9. - **Mental model 16 — Leading vs. lagging indicators.** Paid is lagging; the activation event must be leading — observable *before* the user has paid, and correlated with the lagging outcome. An activation event that is itself lagging cannot drive a decision in time. Se