confirmation-biaslisted

# Confirmation Bias ## Overview **Confirmation bias** is the systematic tendency to seek, interpret, remember, and weight evidence in ways that support existing beliefs — and to correspondingly miss disconfirming evidence. It is the most-replicated finding in cognitive psychology, documented across cultures, expertise levels, and IQ ranges. The canonical proof: Wason's 1960 "2-4-6 task" showed ~80% of subjects (including PhD scientists) confidently announced a wrong rule after testing only sequences they expected to confirm — never proposing a sequence designed to refute the hypothesis. Composes with [`critical-thinking`](../critical-thinking/SKILL.md), [`bayesian-reasoning`](../bayesian-reasoning/SKILL.md), [`abductive-reasoning`](../abductive-reasoning/SKILL.md), and [`metacognition`](../metacognition/SKILL.md). ## When to Use - A team is converging on a single answer too quickly - You feel confident about a claim and haven't looked for evidence against it - Research or due diligence keeps "validating" existing beliefs - Someone says "cherry-picking," "echo chamber," or "looking for what you want to see" - A team is committing to an AI thesis (AI capex, AI valuations, or AI adoption) by citing confirming demos and adoption while discounting failed eval results **Not when:** explicit advocacy context; very low-stakes decision; cost of disconfirmation exceeds value of decision. ## Coaching Novices (Adaptive Front Door) - **Engine mode:** user has a concrete case → ru