decision-bias-checklisted

# Decision Bias Check **Problem shape:** a decision, plan, or evaluation is about to be committed and nobody has run the adversarial pass: which bias produced it, what would refute it, how it behaves in the tails, and whether the metric still measures what it was meant to. ## Relevant geniuses | Agent | Use when | |---|---| | [kahneman](../../agents/genius/kahneman.md) | fast intuition on a high-stakes call; no pre-mortem; estimate needs a reference class; an easier question was answered instead of the hard one | | [taleb](../../agents/genius/taleb.md) | exposure to volatility unclassified (fragile/robust/antifragile); improvement always by addition; decision-makers carry no downside | | [popper](../../agents/genius/popper.md) | claim has no observation that could refute it; only easy confirmations offered as evidence; plan too big to test piecemeal | | [simon](../../agents/genius/simon.md) | optimizing where satisficing is rational; the search space needs decomposing before choosing | | [boyd](../../agents/genius/boyd.md) | adversarial setting — the other side adapts; tempo and orientation matter more than the single best move | | [zhuangzi](../../agents/genius/zhuangzi.md) | the metric has become the target (Goodhart); the evaluation framework itself needs auditing | | [ibnalhaytham](../../agents/genius/ibnalhaytham.md) | an authority's claim taken on trust — systematic doubt with controlled isolation of variables | | [rogerfisher](../../agents/genius/rogerfisher.md) | m