causal-auditlisted

# Causal Audit **Problem shape:** a causal claim is being made, tested, or acted on, and the evidence is correlational, confounded, unreplicated, or resisted by the organization even when clean. The move: make the causal structure explicit, then intervene or design the comparison that could refute it. ## Relevant geniuses | Agent | Use when | |---|---| | [pearl](../../agents/genius/pearl.md) | "X causes Y" claimed from correlation; counterfactual questions; controlled-for variables may be colliders — draw the DAG first | | [fisher](../../agents/genius/fisher.md) | an experiment is being designed: randomize, block, replicate, factorial over one-at-a-time; "run it and see" needs a design document | | [peirce](../../agents/genius/peirce.md) | surprising observation needs candidate explanations; several hypotheses and a limited budget — test cheapest-to-refute first | | [semmelweis](../../agents/genius/semmelweis.md) | matched groups with wildly different outcomes; the evidence is clear but the institution resists it | | [snow](../../agents/genius/snow.md) | something is spreading (bug, outage class, behavior) — outbreak investigation, case definitions, Hill's criteria | | [mill](../../agents/genius/mill.md) | only a handful of cases exist — methods of agreement/difference, necessary vs sufficient conditions | | [feinstein](../../agents/genius/feinstein.md) | diagnosis under uncertainty: differential ranked by likelihood ratios, treatment thresholds before acting | ## Invocat