aer-preregistration

# AER Pre-Registration ## Overview For experimental and prospective-data AER-track work, credibility is bought **before** the data exist. This skill writes the pre-analysis plan (PAP), sizes the sample from a power calculation, and registers the study. Its job is to make the eventual results un-p-hackable: a referee who sees a public PAP timestamp predating data collection cannot accuse you of specification search. Registration is not optional at AEA journals for RCTs. If the design is observational, skip to `aer-robustness`; there is nothing to pre-register. ## When to Use - The paper runs a randomized controlled trial (field, lab, or survey experiment) - The project collects primary data whose analysis should be pre-committed - A referee or editor asks for the trial registration number or the PAP - Reviewers suspect the reported specification was chosen after seeing outcomes - You must justify the sample size, or explain why an effect was "not detected" ## Register-or-Not Decision ``` Is treatment assigned by the researcher (randomization)? ├── Yes → register with the AEA RCT Registry BEFORE the intervention; write a PAP ├── No, but you collect new primary data → post a PAP for the pre-committed analysis └── No, secondary/observational data already realized → do NOT pre-register (a PAP written after the outcomes exist is theater); go to aer-robustness ``` ## Pre-Analysis Plan Contents Pre-specify, in order, and timestamp before unblinding: 1. **Hypotheses** ...