stress-test

# /em:stress-test — Business Assumption Stress Testing **Command:** `/em:stress-test <assumption>` Take any business assumption and break it before the market does. Revenue projections. Market size. Competitive moat. Hiring velocity. Customer retention. --- ## Why Most Assumptions Are Wrong Founders are optimists by nature. That's a feature — you need optimism to start something from nothing. But it becomes a liability when assumptions in business models get inflated by the same optimism that got you started. **The most dangerous assumptions are the ones everyone agrees on.** When the whole team believes the $50M market is real, when every investor call goes well so you assume the round will close, when your model shows $2M ARR by December and nobody questions it — that's when you're most exposed. Stress testing isn't pessimism. It's calibration. --- ## The Stress-Test Methodology ### Step 1: Isolate the Assumption State it explicitly. Not "our market is large" but "the total addressable market for B2B spend management software in German SMEs is €2.3B." The more specific the assumption, the more testable it is. Vague assumptions are unfalsifiable — and therefore useless. **Common assumption types:** - **Market size** — TAM, SAM, SOM; growth rate; customer segments - **Customer behavior** — willingness to pay, churn, expansion, referrals - **Revenue model** — conversion rates, deal size, sales cycle, CAC - **Competitive position** — moat durability, competitor re...