bet-on-itlisted

# Bet On It Make each action earn or lose confidence. Never rewrite a prediction after its result. ## Record the bet When an action depends on an uncertain causal explanation, record this in working notes or commentary—not a repository file: ```text Hypothesis: <current causal explanation> Expected observation: <specific result expected from the next action> Expected change: <files, state, metric, or behavior; none for observation-only steps> Disproof: <result that would make this hypothesis untenable> ``` Use observable signals. One bet may cover coupled steps. Skip bets for mechanical work or settled requirements. ## Run the smallest discriminating step Choose the cheapest safe step that separates plausible alternatives. Prefer read-only observation or temporary instrumentation before a persistent edit. Preserve baselines; separate unrelated changes. ## Settle the bet After the action, preserve the original prediction and append: ```text Observed: <actual result, including unexpected changes> Verdict: matched | partially matched | failed | inconclusive Next action: <continue, refine, abandon, revert, or gather a better signal> ``` Apply the verdicts consistently: - **Matched**: Expected results occurred and disproof did not. This raises confidence but does not prove causality when rivals predict the same result. - **Partially matched**: Some predictions held; narrow or revise the hypothesis. - **Failed**: A valid discriminator produced disproof or failed a requi