effectuationlisted

# Effectuation (Exploration Mode) ## When to Apply - Pre-PMF stage with unclear product direction - Post-pivot with new market entry - Goals are ambiguous or evolving - No historical data to estimate probabilities (Knightian uncertainty) - Every direction looks equally plausible ## Core Framework ### Three-Condition Test (Auto-Evaluate) | Condition | Causation (YES) | Effectuation (NO) | |---|---|---| | Goal clarity | Founder can state clear, measurable goal | Goal is ambiguous or evolving | | Environmental legibility | Clear which market signals matter | Every direction looks equally plausible | | Historical data | Data exists to estimate probabilities | No precedent, Knightian uncertainty | **Mode selection:** - All 3 YES: **Causation mode** (Strategy Kernel, KPI Tree, Critical Chain) - Any 1+ NO: **Effectuation mode** (this framework) - Mixed: **Hybrid mode** (Causation structure with Effectuation flexibility) ### Effectuation Cycle In effectuation mode, DISABLE: KPI tree decomposition, buffer management, Critical Chain. Run this repeating expansion cycle instead: **1. Bird-in-Hand Audit** "What resources do you have RIGHT NOW?" - Skills (founder + team) - Network (who do you know?) - Capital (how much can you invest?) - Technology (what have you already built?) - Domain knowledge (what do you uniquely understand?) **2. Affordable Loss Ceiling (4 Dimensions)** Every experiment is checked against ALL four dimensions: | Dimension | Question | Threshold | |---|---|