moradin-measurelisted

# moradin:measure Before researching tools or writing code: what does *working* look like, in numbers? Without this, you ship blind and every metric you pick later will be one that flatters you. Takes ~10 minutes. ## When invoked `/moradin:measure` — requires `.forge/plan.md` (run `/moradin:define` first if missing). Read `plan.md` and `profile.md`. Draft everything from the plan; the operator corrects. Same rule as define: never a blank page. ## Build the Success Contract Work through in order, one at a time: 1. **Stage label.** From the plan's evidence answer: no evidence the problem exists → stage is **validation**. Evidence but not shipped → **launch**. Already has users → **growth**. Say which and why in one sentence. 2. **The one metric that matters.** Draft it from the riskiest assumption — the metric should measure *exactly the thing v1 must prove*. Rules: - A **rate or ratio**, never a cumulative total ("% of signups who do X within 7 days", not "total signups"). Totals only go up; they flatter and inform nothing. - A **target** ("30%") *and* a **kill/pivot threshold with a sample size** ("under 10% after 100 signups"). The threshold is what turns the number into a decision instead of a decoration. Say plainly: "if we hit this line, we change course — agreeing on that now is the whole point." 3. **The traffic question.** "Where do the first 20 users come from — concretely?" A subreddit they post in, a community they're in, friends in the target group, a