opportunity-sizerlisted

Discovery-stage skill: builds a TAM/SAM/SOM opportunity size where every number carries a stated source or an explicit estimate label — no naked figures. Use when the user asks how big a market or opportunity is — 'size the market for X', 'TAM/SAM/SOM for Y', 'is this niche big enough', 'market-size inputs for the deck' — or when /pm routes such a request here. Do NOT use for definitions of sizing terms, for single-fact lookups like a company's market cap, for internal revenue forecasting, or for mapping idea risks (assumption-mapper's job).
Abhillashjadhav/PM-agent-OS · ★ 1 · AI & Automation · score 60

Install: claude install-skill Abhillashjadhav/PM-agent-OS

# Opportunity Sizer TAM/SAM/SOM with the receipts attached. A number without a source or an estimate label does not leave this skill. ## Verification gates (defined first; output is blocked until all pass) - **G1 — No naked figures:** every number in the output carries `[SOURCE: <where it came from>]` or `[ESTIMATE: <derivation/assumption>]`. This includes intermediate numbers, not just the headline three. - **G2 — Arithmetic reconciles and nests:** derivations shown, math correct, SOM ⊆ SAM ⊆ TAM. A SOM larger than its SAM, or a derivation that doesn't multiply out, fails the gate. - **G3 — No invented citations:** a SOURCE tag names material the user provided or the skill actually retrieved this session. "Per Gartner"-style citations from memory are forbidden — an unverifiable recollection becomes an ESTIMATE or is cut. ## Steps 1. **Fix the unit of value.** Who pays, for what unit, at what price? (practice/month, seat/year, % of transaction). Pricing from the user is a SOURCE; pricing assumed is an ESTIMATE. 2. **Build TAM top-down or bottom-up — show which.** Bottom-up preferred: population count × price. Tag the population count's source; if fetched, cite what was fetched; if assumed, label it. 3. **Cut to SAM.** Apply the serviceable constraints (geography, segment, tech prerequisites). Every cut factor is a tagged number. Unknown share? Use a stated range (e.g. 40–60%) with the basis for its bounds — never a silently chosen midpoint. 4. **Cut to SOM.** Reachable s